Kannapolis Citizen
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
www.salisburypost.com/kc/

History May Repeat in 8th
from What We Think, Kannapolis Citizen

It's beginning to feel like 1974 again in North Carolina's 8th congressional district.

That was the year a virtually unknown Democratic challenger defeated the well-liked incumbent, Rep. Earl Ruth of Salisbury, thus ending Ruth's congressional career. With no previous political experience, gospel singer Bill Hefner aimed his campaign at the working man, and he won with 57 percent of the vote. "Hefner Tops Ruth in a Landslide of Votes," a Salisbury Post headline said.

Hefner's gospel-singing common touch appealed to voters, but he had more than "Amazing Grace" on his side. President Richard Nixon resigned from office in August 1974, and Republican candidates across the nation bore the taint that fall of being from the party that put Nixon in office in the first place. Pretty soon a lot of Republican congressmen would leave office involuntarily, having lost their bid for re-election.

U.S. Rep. Robin Hayes may be thinking about 1974. The president he has supported – so much so that he flipped his stance on CAFTA, the Central American Free Trade Agreement – has been falling in popularity. George W. Bush is nowhere near impeachment, but he's close to anathema in the minds of voters who are unhappy about the war in Iraq and the mistakes or deceptions that led the country into this quagmire.

Between Bush's handling of the war and Republican House leaders' bungling of the Foley scandal over suggestive messages sent to House pages, the Republican label is beginning to look like a taint again, however undeserved that guilt-by-association may be for Hayes. Voters' attention is not focused on Hayes' years of conservative votes, constituent service and procuring federal funds for local projects.

Early in the campaign, Larry Kissell looked like another in a string of Democratic sacrificial lambs who have challenged the incumbent. Had anyone outside of Kissell's Hometown of Biscoe even heard of him? But he's aiming his appeals at working-class folks – the ones let down by that CAFTA vote – and the national Democratic Party is taking notice. Former Sen. John Edwards, an advocate for the poor, came to town last week to campaign for Kissell, and Kissell's ads are showing up on TV. A lot has changed on the political landscape since 1974 – the GOP's conservative shift, the religious right's rise to power and the lengths to which candidate will go to smear opponents in campaign ads. Even the configuration of the district has changed, in the GOP's favor. And Hayes is a well-heeled candidate in what could end up being a big-money race.

But one thing has not changed – human nature. Voters are fickle. In 1974, it was against 8th district voters' nature to support anything or anyone tied to Richard Nixon, so they turned their backs on Earl Ruth. Now, in 2006, will similar feelings make voters change their minds about Hayes? Anything is possible.