Fayetteville Observer
Saturday, November 4, 2006
www.fayobserver.com

Voter discontent makes Kissell contender against Hayes

It was nearing midnight, and time was running out on the Central America Free Trade Agreement.

U.S. Rep. Robin Hayes — who had earlier said he was "flat-out, horizontally opposed" to CAFTA" — had already cast a "no" vote. That's when fellow Republicans made one last push for votes.

House Speaker Dennis Hastert approached Hayes and asked what it would take to get his vote.

China, Hayes replied. North Carolina textile plants need protection from cheap Chinese imports, he said.

With China on the table, "it suddenly became a new bill," Hayes said. He got the promises he wanted and changed his vote. The trade agreement passed by two votes.

"I could have been politically safe," Hayes said Wednesday in Fayetteville. "I'm not there to play it safe."

Larry Kissell sees things differently. Hayes' Democratic challenger worked in the mills for 27 years.

The textile industry, Kissell acknowledges, was already on its way out in North Carolina. What he objects to is federal government hastening its demise with trade agreements and then not providing for the people who lost jobs.

Then came Hayes' vote.

"Hayes broke his word," Kissell said. "It's a case of a representative going against the interests of his people."

Hayes' broken promise, Kissell says, is just one example of what is broken in Washington. "People in Washington are manipulating the issues," Kissell said. "People want it straight, without the spin." Congress is out of touch with the people, he said.

Hayes said it's a case of promises made and promises fulfilled.

"There was no flip-flop. It was a new day and huge opportunity to do the right thing for the district," he said.

He disputes Kissell's contention that he is out of touch with the 8th District.

"I've never been touched by Potomac fever," Hayes said. "I'm home every weekend."

The Hayes-Kissell clash is, in many ways, a microcosm of the national congressional election. An Elon University poll of the 8th District mirrors results of national polls. According to the Elon poll, people are dissatisfied with Congress, and more than 40 percent say it's time to elect someone new in the 8th District.

The Elon Poll also shows that the war in Iraq and the economy are the top issues in the district.

Four of the 10 counties in the district have high unemployment rates. Scotland County's rate in September was 8.4 percent, second highest in the state.

Plant closures have cost the 8th District about 10,000 jobs since 2000.

Almost 50 percent of the registered voters in the 8th District are Democrats. Historically, the district votes Democratic in local and state elections, but Republican nationally.

George W. Bush got 54 percent of the district's vote in 2004 and Hayes got 56 percent.

Kissell's chances, analysts say, hinge on just how big the anti-incumbency wave is on election day. Is it enough to lift him — a political newcomer — against a veteran who has withstood a Democratic election challenge every year?

Early in the campaign, the answer appeared to be "no" as Kissell was unknown, underfunded and even unappreciated by his own party.

Days before the election, analysts say Kissell has surprised them.

"The 'incumbent is out of touch' theme is one of the strongest Democrats have," said David Wasserman, editor of Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. Sabato, a University of Virginia professor, is one of the nation's leading political analysts.

"This year, the strategy will work wonders for the Democrats," Wasserman said, "In part because incumbent Republicans who never saw this Democratic wave coming until now felt they could afford to cast some unpopular votes in Congress.

"Robin Hayes and his vote on CAFTA fit that description perfectly, and now he has a real race on his hands against someone who would otherwise be considered a token challenger."

For most the campaign, Sabato's Crystal Ball rated the 8th District race as "likely Republican." It changed the rating to "leans Republican" — one step from a toss-up — in the last week of the campaign.

Kissell's campaign

Kissell has been more reliable than the postman when it comes to going door to door.

He has walked in the heat, and in the rain. Famous politicos such as former N.C. governor Jim Hunt have joined him. But many times he has been a tall, solitary figure walking the streets as staffers move his car.

When a door opens, his message is the same: "Hi, I'm Larry Kissell . I'm from Montgomery County and I worked in textiles for 27 years and five years as a teacher. I believe things are broken in Washington and we need a change."

Kissell's door-to-door campaigning, normally used in smaller state or local elections, has attracted attention.

So has the day his campaign sold gas in Kissell's hometown of Biscoe for $1.22 a gallon — the price when Hayes was elected to Congress in 1998.

Kissell's campaign has also attracted much attention on the Internet.

His campaign has even tried to put a positive spin on "bad" news. When his campaign reported $88.94 in available funds to the Federal Election Commission, Kissell said the balance was like most 8th District residents — and unlike Hayes, the sixth-richest man in Congress, according to Open Secrets. The group, which tracks Congress and campaign finances, estimates Hayes' net worth is between $58 million and $59 million.

The Federal Election Commission fined Kissell's campaign $210 on Sept. 29 for filing a late campaign finance report.

Kissell said the race is not about what he's against, but "the things I'm for."

He said he wants better jobs, no more free trade agreements, an end to dependence on foreign oil, and border security.

He also wants a phased withdraw of American troops from Iraq. He hasn't said exactly when the withdrawal should start, but he does believe it should be completed within a year of beginning.

Epicenters

Just about everywhere Hayes goes is the "epicenter" of the 8th District, whether it's in Charlotte, Fayetteville and Fort Bragg, or any of the counties between.

While his message is tailored to the audience, the theme is always the same — the importance of being connected to Washington and bringing home the bacon.

"We need to have a strong national economy and strong national security," Hayes says.

Most often he is accompanied by a secretary from Bush's cabinet or a high-ranking member of Congress.

It's a strategy Democrats had hoped to sidetrack.

"Hayes plays up local issues," said Artur Davis, a Alabama congressman who evaluated Kissell for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, one of the fundraising arms of the party.

"The stakes are higher this time," Davis said. "He won't be able to do that."

But Hayes, analysts say, is among the best at selling himself.

"He is a great retail politician," said North Carolina campaign consultant Brad Crone. "He is wonderful one-on-one. He relates to how people feel. He is as good as it gets."

At a recent stop at the Hoke County Farm Bureau in Raeford, Hayes brought along U.S. Rep. Bob Goodlatte of Virginia. He is chairman of the House Agriculture Committee.

Also there was Peter Daniel, assistant to the president of the state Farm Farm Bureau.

Daniel presented Hayes with the Golden Plow award, the highest honor the national farm bureau gives to a congressman. The only other North Carolinian to win the award is Jesse Helms.

"He took a hard stand for North Carolina agriculture with his CAFTA vote," Daniels said. "Because of his vote, we won."

The state farm bureau estimates CAFTA, when fully implemented, will increase annual agricultural revenues in the 8th District between $4 and $5 million.

CAFTA critics said the revenues will come at the expense of small farmers in Central America.

Hayes' campaign contributors praise him for his integrity and vision.

Deepak Shamdasani, vice president of Fayetteville's American Uniform Sales, donated $1,000 to Hayes this year. He has given Hayes $7,000 since 1998.

"He is a strong supporter of our military. They need all the support they can get instead of criticism," Shamdasani said.

Howard Bullard, owner of Bullard Furniture in Fayetteville, has given Hayes $2,000 this election and $8,000 since 1998.

"Hayes is a sound thinker, the kind of people we need in government," Bullard said. "He makes good decisions based on his morals, his ethics."

This year's campaign has also taken Hayes into what some observers say are traditional Democratic enclaves.

Last Sunday, Hayes was the only Republican candidate at the Help Empower Local People rally in Charlotte. He and Kissell sat on the same church pew, separated by other politicians.

Hayes told the crowd he has walked their neighborhoods, seen their needs and responded. He even delivered some of his message in Spanish.

"I like being in Congress. I can help people," he said.

Charlotte Congressman Mel Watt also spoke. He said he was "privileged not to have to apologize for the votes I cast. I didn't vote for the war resolution. I didn't vote for NAFTA or CAFTA and I didn't vote for the prescription drug plan."

Watt said his remarks were not directed at Hayes, "but if the shoe fits, wear it."

He said that Hayes' presence "shows he's in distress. It's nice to see him campaigning in our community."

Compared to his previous campaigns, Hayes seems pressed.

His campaign has included automated phone calls to potential voters from such varied sources as Republican stalwart Sen. John McCain of Arizona and Mary Anne Dawkins, widow of former Fayetteville Mayor J.L. Dawkins.

Dawkins identifies herself as a Democrat who is voting for Hayes. It's the second election she has made calls for Hayes.

"He is a family friend, and he helped get the post office named for J.L.," she said.

Yellow-dog Democrat

Raz Autry, former Hoke County superintendent of schools, gave Hayes a $200 campaign contribution because of the federal money he brought to Raeford's downtown.

He's also given Kissell — his former high school student — $800. He said Kissell is a straight shooter.

Autry described himself as a "yellow dog" Democrat, someone who will vote for the party regardless of who is running.

Kissell will need every yellow-dog Democrat to vote for him — as well as the persuadable voters — to upset Hayes.

"If Kissell is to have a chance, he needs to identify the persuadable voters, those who have doubts about the nation's leadership," said Ferrell Guillory, director of the Program on Southern Politics, Media and Public Life at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Saboto's Crystal Ball says Kissell must run strong in Charlotte and textile country to win. He must also prevent the drop-off in minority voting often seen in midyear elections, Wasserman said.

Hayes, Wasserman predicted, will break even in Cumberland County and will need to run strong in Cabarrus and Stanly counties.

Autry said he will be voting for Kissell on Tuesday. He said this is the best chance for Democrats to reclaim the 8th District.

"If we don't get it done this time, we won't have a chance," he said.

But if Hayes wins, "I wouldn't go off half mad," Autry said.