Swing State Project
Thursday, June 21, 2007
www.swingstateproject.com

NC-08: New Poll Shows Kissell and Hayes Neck and Neck, DCCC Salivates

Anzalone-Liszt, the firm that revealed Robin Hayes' vulnerability against underdog Democrat Larry Kissell in a surprising poll last May, is back with perhaps the first publicly-leaked House race match-up polls of the 2008 cycle. And boy, is it a doozy:

Robin Hayes (R-Inc.): 45
Larry Kissell (D): 43

Re-Elect Hayes: 40
Vote For Someone New: 43

Kissell, who came within 329 votes of upsetting the CAFTA-loving Hayes in 2006 despite being outspent by $779k to Hayes' $2.48 million, won't be as starved for funds in 2008, if DCCC Chair Rep. Chris Van Hollen has anything to do with it:

We are fully committed to this effort going forward. We think this is a winnable race. We think the fact that we came so close, that Larry came so close last time is a clear indication that Robin Hayes is vulnerable. We think he remains vulnerable. [...]

I told Larry, that come next spring when we put together our Red to Blue program, that this race will be on that list from the start and we will continue obviously to work with the campaign going forward.

That was part of a transcript of a conference call between Kissell, Van Hollen, Marc Silverman of Anzalone-Liszt, and potential donors posted on BlueNC . Also discussed during the call was the broad name recognition gap that Hayes holds over Kissell. Despite being known to only 34% of voters (compared to 84% for Hayes), Kissell trails the incumbent by a statistically insignificant margin. Compare Kissell's 34% recognition to the 19% that Democrat Paul Hodes posted in May 2006 (also his second--and successful--crack at the bat in a House race), and you can see why Kissell is ahead of the curve while still showing a lot of room to grow. With a boost of new resources, Kissell can introduce himself for the first time to a lot of voters that his underfunded grassroots campaign couldn't reach last year. The caveat is, as Markos notes, Hayes will take Kissell's challenge much more seriously at a much earlier starting point in the cycle. So expect Uncle Pennybags to dip into his own coffers somewhat heavily. And expect the NRCC to come packing heat.

BlueNC has much, much more.