The Charlotte Observer
Thursday, November 29, 2007
www.charlotte.com

DECISION 2008

Congressional battles already taking shape
Fundraising, name recognition could be crucial in several races

LISA ZAGAROLI, McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON - With about three months remaining before the filing deadline, N.C. congressional candidates are filling the field.

That means many voters will have choices in 2008 about who represents them in Washington at the same time they choose a new president and governor.

Which of these candidates actually runs -- or wins -- will depend on factors such as name recognition, fundraising prowess, issue positions and whether last year's Democratic wave continues.

Here's an early look at which incumbents might be scrambling to protect their jobs -- or skating to re-election next year:

Sen. Elizabeth Dole

"The Senate race will be interesting if there's some money in that," says Ted Arrington, a political science professor at UNC Charlotte who thinks it will be a bad year for Republicans.Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R-N.C., of Salisbury has drawn a pair of Democrats who want to oust her from the statewide seat she has held for the past five years.

The first hurdle will be name recognition for state Sen. Kay Hagan, D-Guilford, and investment banker Jim Neal of Chapel Hill.

If they raise enough money to be heard, they'll try to chip away at the record of an N.C. native well-known for leading the American Red Cross.

Dole's challengers say she's been absent from the state, a rubber stamp for President Bush, and devoid of major Senate accomplishments.

"Will they look to Sen. Dole's 40-odd years as a politician, or will they hold her accountable for what she hasn't done in her few years in Washington?" Neal said.

"Nobody can say what she's done for the citizens of North Carolina," Hagan said.

Dole said she has worked to keep military bases, fought the president on immigration and gotten trade concessions for the state.

Rep. Robin Hayes

The most hard-fought contest in the state likely will be over the 8th District seat held by Rep. Robin Hayes, a Republican from Concord first elected in 1999.

Hayes, a multimillionaire textile heir, clung to his seat by 329 votes last term against an underdog. Biscoe teacher Larry Kissell is back, this time backed by Washington Democrats.

The money will be welcome, but there's no telling if having Beltway support will be an asset.

Kissell says he'll emphasize the same kitchen-table issues in an area slammed by the loss of manufacturing jobs.

"Our people are still hurting," he says.

Hayes says his priorities remain "national security and economic security."

Rep. Heath Shuler

The best time to oust an incumbent is typically after his or her first term, so Rep. Heath Shuler, the 11th District Democrat from Waynesville, will need a defense as well as an offense.Despite former Rep. Charles Taylor's refusal to disclose whether he'll try to get his old job back from Shuler, the former football star is starting to acquire a list of Republican opponents.

Among those planning to run are Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower, Henderson County Republican Chairman Spence Campbell and Highland attorney John Armor.

"He's a nice guy, but he's not our guy," Stephen Duncan of Asheville, the Republican chairman of the 11th District, said of Shuler.

Luke Hyde of Bryson City, the district's Democratic chairman, said Shuler is a moderate who has reached across the political spectrum to gain support.

"He is hardworking, savvy and intelligent," Hyde said.

Rep. Patrick McHenry

The 10th District isn't one that national Democrats normally would spend energy on, but Rep. Patrick McHenry of Cherryville gives them optimism.

McHenry has been controversial at home since he won a Republican primary runoff in 2004 and in Washington for his role attacking the Democrats.

"You've got somebody who is just too strident," says Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

He has high hopes for the candidacy of Daniel Johnson of Hickory, a lawyer and Navy veteran.

McHenry could face a primary as well, from lawyer Lance Sigmon of Newton, a longtime military officer.

It's too soon to say if Sigmon will have any luck raising money or if Johnson is capable of flipping voters who carry Republican registration cards.

McHenry says he's working to bring "conservative change" to Washington and stands by his record of advocacy for the district.

Rep. Sue Myrick

Democratic political newcomers Harry Taylor of Charlotte and Ross Overby of Marvin, in Union County, plan to challenge Rep. Sue Myrick, a Charlotte Republican first elected in 1995.Taylor, a real estate broker, gained notoriety for scolding Bush at a public appearance last year at Central Piedmont Community College.

Overby is an engineer.

A major challenge for them would be the makeup of the predominantly Republican 9th District.

"She's just not going to be vulnerable," Arrington predicted of Myrick, the former mayor of Charlotte. DECISION 2008

Key election dates

• Feb. 11 -- Filing begins for candidates. • Feb. 29 -- Deadline to declare or withdraw candidacy. • May 6 -- Primary election. • Nov. 4 -- General election.

N.C. voter affiliation

Here are voter registration breakdowns for the state and some of the area's congressional districts, according to the N.C. State Board of Elections.

STATEWIDE

U.S. Senate seat held by Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R-N.C.

Voter breakdown: 2.5 million Democrats, 1.9 million Republicans, 1.1 million unaffiliated.

8TH DISTRICT

U.S. House seat held by Rep. Robin Hayes, a Concord Republican

Voter breakdown: 191,000 Democrats, 118,000 Republicans, 77,000 unaffiliated.

9TH DISTRICT

U.S. House seat held by Rep. Sue Myrick, a Charlotte Republican

Voter breakdown: 217,000 Republicans, 162,000 Democrats, 117,000 unaffiliated.

10TH DISTRICT

U.S. House seat held by Rep. Patrick McHenry, a Cherryville Republican

Voter breakdown: 179,000 Republicans, 150,000 Democrats, 82,000 unaffiliated.

11TH DISTRICT

U.S. House seat held by Rep. Heath Shuler, a Waynesville Democrat

Voter breakdown: 192,000 Democrats, 168,000 Republicans, 110,000 unaffiliated.